UAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UAL - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$111.71
-4.07 (-3.52%)
▼
5d:
-11.59%
30d:
-4.73%
90d:
+13.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $126.14 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UAL is down 11.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UAL is down 11.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$225.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.04
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UAL is currently trading at $111.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.84 to $127.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: UAL scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.15 (+45.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: UAL scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $162.15 (+45.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$116.84 -
$127.25
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.2% below Wall St target ($162.15)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$116.84 -
$127.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.96
Resistance Level
$130.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.23
Wall Street Target
$162.15
(+45.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.2%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$108.82
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$107.41
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$111.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 49.6%)
$1036.94
(+828%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 49.6%)
$373.76
(+235%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 49.6%)
$317.69
(+184%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.42
Bull Case
$188.74
(+69%)
Analyst growth 48.2%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$171.58
(+54%)
Market implied 48.2%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$78.73
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$115.82
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 21, 2026 7:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is UAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced UAL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UAL price and gamma walls.
