LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1213.91
22.17 (1.86%)
▲
5d:
+7.65%
30d:
+14.07%
90d:
+27.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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2 traders called LLY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: LLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2066.83
Based on 13.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1283.34
5.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1213.91, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1087.19 to $1175.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.3) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1238.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1238.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$1087.19 -
$1175.41
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1220.39)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1087.19 -
$1175.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1079.22
Resistance Level
$1238.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.30
Wall Street Target
$1220.39
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
169.9%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
27.3 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1230.90
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1248.14
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$1265.61
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$1214.66
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.3, Growth: 22.8%)
$2247.47
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.8%)
$1793.11
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 22.8%)
$1524.14
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.13
Bull Case
$2072.26
(+71%)
Analyst growth 58.1%, PE expands to 46.6
Base Case
$1883.87
(+55%)
Market implied 58.1%, PE stable at 42.4
Bear Case
$810.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
Angus S. King Jr.
SELL
2026-02-13
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