LLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LLY - Eli Lilly & Co.
$1201.78
5.75 (0.48%)
▲
5d:
+4.79%
30d:
+6.57%
90d:
+35.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
8d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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1 traders called LLY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2186.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1357.58
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LLY is currently trading at $1201.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1128.20 to $1209.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.4) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1206.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1206.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$1128.20 -
$1209.17
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1270.37)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1128.20 -
$1209.17
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1134.40
Resistance Level
$1206.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.41
Wall Street Target
$1270.37
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
169.9%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
26.4 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1188.24
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$1190.62
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$1193.00
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$1183.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.4, Growth: 29.3%)
$2561.44
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.9, Growth: 29.3%)
$2032.23
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.8, Growth: 29.3%)
$1727.40
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $27.80
Bull Case
$2066.68
(+73%)
Analyst growth 61.5%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$1878.80
(+57%)
Market implied 61.5%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$790.85
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 27, 2026 10:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
Angus S. King Jr.
SELL
2026-02-13
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