AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$42.58
0.19 (0.45%)
▲
5d:
-24.7%
30d:
-20.29%
90d:
-27.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 6, 2026 at $57.80 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAP is down 24.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAP is down 24.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.59
41.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $42.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.08 to $58.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.66, while resistance sits at $59.28.
Market Sentiment: AAP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.05 (+41.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $40.66, while resistance sits at $59.28.
Market Sentiment: AAP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.05 (+41.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.08 -
$58.84
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($60.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.08 -
$58.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.66
Resistance Level
$59.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.64
Wall Street Target
$60.05
(+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.32
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$34.49
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$31.04
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$43.76
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 36.4%)
$203.71
(+378%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 36.4%)
$107.99
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 36.4%)
$91.79
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.23 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.01
Bull Case
$51.42
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$42.58
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$32.57
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$60.03
(+41.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 4:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AAP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAP price and gamma walls.
