AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$55.54
-0.65 (-1.16%)
▼
5d:
-0.47%
30d:
-11.87%
90d:
-6.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
Get Alerted When AAP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.18
24.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $55.54, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.72 to $59.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $50.94, while resistance sits at $59.55.
Market Sentiment: AAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $50.94, while resistance sits at $59.55.
Market Sentiment: AAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$53.72 -
$59.95
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.37)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.72 -
$59.95
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.94
Resistance Level
$59.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.86
Wall Street Target
$60.37
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.98
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$52.47
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$51.00
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$55.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 36.4%)
$210.92
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 36.4%)
$140.99
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 36.4%)
$119.85
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.37 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.48
Bull Case
$67.06
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$55.54
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$42.49
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$60.52
(+9.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Auto Parts Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto Parts by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone Inc |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$3962 | 47 HOLD |
|
ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$108 | 51 HOLD |
|
APTV
Aptiv PLC |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$78 | 56 HOLD |
|
MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc. Cla… |
BUY
28 analysts |
$12 | 47 HOLD |
|
HSAI
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$30 | 58 HOLD |
Advanced AAP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAP price and gamma walls.
