AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$56.72
-1.23 (-2.13%)
▼
5d:
+0.68%
30d:
-4.46%
90d:
+3.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
30d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
Get Alerted When AAP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.68
23.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $56.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.29 to $61.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.35, while resistance sits at $63.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.35, while resistance sits at $63.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$56.29 -
$61.13
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.37)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.29 -
$61.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.35
Resistance Level
$63.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.45
Wall Street Target
$60.37
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.96
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$56.00
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$55.04
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$57.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 36.4%)
$221.59
(+282%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 36.4%)
$147.06
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 36.4%)
$125.00
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.12
Bull Case
$121.00
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 54.0
Base Case
$110.00
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 49.1
Bear Case
$37.40
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$60.94
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Auto Parts Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto Parts by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone Inc |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$3969 | 61 BUY |
|
ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$110 | 56 HOLD |
|
APTV
Aptiv PLC |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$78 | 48 HOLD |
|
MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc. Cla… |
BUY
28 analysts |
$13 | 53 HOLD |
|
HSAI
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$30 | 53 HOLD |
Advanced AAP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAP price and gamma walls.
