TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$31.21
0.19 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
+2.55%
30d:
+3.29%
90d:
-30.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
5d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.53
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.10
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $31.20, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.90 to $31.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.93, while resistance sits at $32.64.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.59 (+44.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.93, while resistance sits at $32.64.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.59 (+44.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$29.90 -
$31.25
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($43.59)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.90 -
$31.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.93
Resistance Level
$32.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.22
Wall Street Target
$43.59
(+44.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.15
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$24.44
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$21.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→18)
$30.45
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 8.5%)
$61.21
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 8.5%)
$38.51
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 8.5%)
$32.73
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$37.42
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$34.02
(+10%)
Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$20.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$41.77
(+38.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 17, 2026 11:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-31
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-16
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Advanced TSCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TSCO price and gamma walls.
