TSCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co
$31.21
0.46 (1.50%)
▲
5d:
+3.21%
30d:
+1.76%
90d:
-31.99%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TSCO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.31
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.21
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TSCO is currently trading at $31.21, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.82 to $31.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.78 (+43.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TSCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TSCO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.78 (+43.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$29.82 -
$31.41
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.5% below Wall St target ($44.78)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.82 -
$31.41
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.36
Resistance Level
$31.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.62
Wall Street Target
$44.78
(+43.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.1%
Profit Margin
6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 18.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.09
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$25.28
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$22.75
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→19)
$31.41
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$63.73
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 8.5%)
$39.84
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 8.5%)
$33.87
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$38.19
(+22%)
Analyst growth 12.9%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$34.72
(+11%)
Market implied 12.9%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$20.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$43.09
(+38.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 27, 2026 5:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TSCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-31
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
April McClain Delaney
BUY
2026-03-16
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