ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$75.11
5.16 (7.38%)
▲
5d:
+14.17%
30d:
+21.03%
90d:
+45.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
19d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ESTC is 12.3% above its trading range ($66.91). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ESTC is 12.3% above its trading range ($66.91). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.55
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $75.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.98 to $66.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ESTC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ESTC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$57.98 -
$66.91
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
ESTC is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($74.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.98 -
$66.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$59.48
Resistance Level
$75.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.64
Wall Street Target
$74.00
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
24.6 vs 22.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.98
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$74.07
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$76.21
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$69.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.6, Growth: 12.2%)
$98.83
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.2%)
$81.16
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 12.2%)
$68.98
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 20.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.37
Bull Case
$64.61
(-8%)
Analyst growth -15.7%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$58.74
(-16%)
Market implied -15.7%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$47.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 07, 2026 4:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carolyn Herzog
SELL
3989 shares
2026-03-09
Ashutosh Kulkarni
SELL
17756 shares
2026-03-09
Shay Banon
SELL
4283 shares
2026-03-09
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