TWLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TWLO - Twilio Inc.
$241.28
48.08 (24.89%)
▲
5d:
+22.26%
30d:
+10.38%
90d:
+22.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: TWLO is 11.8% above its trading range ($215.85). Market expects 5.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: TWLO is 11.8% above its trading range ($215.85). Market expects 5.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$268.37
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$166.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TWLO is currently trading at $241.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $190.98 to $215.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.1) compared to its historical average (25.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $182.60, while resistance sits at $254.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 24.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TWLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $182.60, while resistance sits at $254.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 24.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$190.98 -
$215.85
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
Protect Your Profits
TWLO is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.8% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+24.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($210.72)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.1% growth expectation is conservative given 375% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$190.98 -
$215.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$182.60
Resistance Level
$254.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.07
Wall Street Target
$210.72
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
375.0%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
29.1 vs 25.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$203.05
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$213.41
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$224.29
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$193.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.1, Growth: 16.3%)
$304.01
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.3%)
$211.57
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 16.3%)
$179.83
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 35.09 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.51
Bull Case
$233.29
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.8
Base Case
$193.20
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 35.1
Bear Case
$147.80
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 07, 2026 4:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TWLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erika Rottenberg
SELL
1800 shares
2026-04-21
Khozema Shipchandler
SELL
15715 shares
2026-04-06
Aidan Viggiano
SELL
9389 shares
2026-04-02
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